Thursday 13 October 2016

US election: Could Republicans still dump Donald Trump?

For all Republicans out there longing to boot Donald Trump off the presidential ticket even at this late stage, there are four key words.
Death, declination, or otherwise.
The Republican National Committee (RNC) sets out in its Rule 9 the terms for "filling vacancies in nominations".
It reads: "The Republican National Committee is hereby authorized and empowered to fill any and all vacancies which may occur by reason of death, declination, or otherwise of the Republican candidate for President of the United States."
Death may be off the agenda, so what about the other scenarios?

Declination...

Mr Trump would voluntarily leave the race.
With "Rule 9" invoked, the RNC could then either reconvene the 2,472-delegate convention to vote again - a virtual impossibility at this stage - or the board of the RNC, with 160 members representing all states and territories, would select a replacement.
Each state and territory would have the same amount of voting power that it had at the convention. Mike Pence, the vice-presidential nominee, would not get an automatic promotion because the board could choose anyone to fill the vacancy.
Many Republican representatives and senators would welcome a new candidate as he or she could help them hold on to their seats.
Unfortunately for Trump opponents, the candidate has shown no intention of exiting the scene. His comments after the latest obscene remarks controversy - "See you at the debate on Sunday."

...or otherwise

The anti-Trumpers might take some comfort in the vagueness of the phrase.
Rule 9 has never actually been used before and so its boundaries have never been tested. The last time a candidate left the ticket late was in 1972. Democratic vice-presidential candidate Thomas Eagleton was forced off after his bouts of depression were made public.

Thomas Eagleton, left, was booted from the campaign of George McGovern in 1972Image copyrightAP
Image captionThomas Eagleton, left, was booted from the campaign of George McGovern in 1972

"Otherwise" is generally taken to cover the gap between death and declination, perhaps a coma or stroke or other illness that leaves the candidate alive but unable to signal withdrawal.
As such, it is about filling vacancies and not creating them.
But some have suggested a broader interpretation, taking "otherwise" into areas such as acts of criminality, treason or even adopting principles "fundamentally at variance with party principles", as commentator Thomas Balch puts it.

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